Let's Talk About The Weather

Business Week

The eastern half of the U.S. faces a cold, windy day with record-breaking temperatures in the Rocky Mountains and northern Plains. Florida orange growers likely escaped crop damage last night.

The National Weather Service issued hard freeze warnings for this morning and tonight into tomorrow morning for southern Alabama and Georgia and the northern part of Florida, including the panhandle. Such warnings alert growers of temperatures that may fall below 32 degrees Fahrenheit (zero Celsius) for more than three consecutive hours.

A southern dip of the jet stream, which normally keeps the coldest air north of the Hudson Bay in Canada, prompted record low temperatures in North Dakota and Minnesota, said Dave Samuhel, a meteorologist for AccuWeather.com Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.

“It has been really cold the past two nights in North Dakota and Minnesota, including 37 degrees below zero in International Falls,” Samuhel said in a telephone interview.

The temperature in that Minnesota town, typically the coldest spot in the nation, set a daily record, he said. The January record for International Falls is 46 degrees below zero, Samuhel said.

Jacksonville, Florida, fell to 26 degrees overnight, well below the typical temperature of 42 degrees, he said. A low of 20 degrees is forecast for tonight, which would break the existing record of 22 degrees, Samuhel said. Orlando may slip to 27 degrees tonight, shattering its record of 31 degrees, he said.

Florida likely escaped any crop damage since the main citrus-growing areas were above freezing last night, Samuhel said. “Tonight will be a little bit colder, but I don’t expect widespread damage.” Below-freezing temperatures wouldn’t last long enough to cause damage to the fruit, he said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture last month estimated Florida’s orange crop will be 0.7 percent smaller than earlier forecast because adverse weather reduced fruit size. The state is the world’s second biggest orange producer after Brazil.

The major cities along the U.S. East Coast are braced for single-digit wind chill temperatures today with winds gusting as high as 45 miles per hour from New York to Washington. The coldest overnight temperature was 16 degrees at Baltimore, Samuhel said.

“The biggest deal in all the major cities will be the wind,” he said.

Smaller Domestic Orange Crop Expected

AP Story

ORLANDO, Fla. — This season's U.S. orange crop is expected to be 10 percent smaller than last season's yield, agriculture officials said Friday, though consumers likely won't have to pay more for their orange juice.

Estimates released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture put the overall U.S. orange crop at 8.25 million tons, down 10 percent from last season's final count. If the estimate holds true, the 2009-2010 orange crop will be 18 percent lower than the one two seasons ago.

However, orange juice producers already have about a half-year's worth of inventory in storage from last season, offsetting any chance of a shortage given the expected smaller crop, experts said.

"There should be plenty of juice for consumers this year," said Mark Brown, a senior research economist at the Florida Department of Citrus. "Prices will continue in the range they are today."

The Florida orange crop this season is expected to be 136 million boxes, each weighing 90 pounds, down 16 percent from last season's final count. Florida is the nation's largest orange producer and grows about three-quarters of the U.S. crop. About 90 percent of the state's fruit is used to make orange juice.

Below-average rainfall and freezing temperatures earlier this year are to blame for much smaller amounts of fruit per tree this season.

The Florida frozen concentrated orange juice yield estimate is 1.63 gallons per box, down slightly from last year. The estimate from Florida grapefruit was 18.8 million boxes, each weighing 85 pounds, a 9 percent decrease. The crop estimate for Florida tangerines was expected to be 27 percent higher than last year at 4.9 million boxes.

The decrease in Florida's orange crop has little to do with citrus greening, an insect-borne bacteria that Florida growers had feared would devastate their crops, officials said. The disease requires costly spraying and screening, and is even then difficult to detect. The state and federal governments have diverted millions of dollars into potential research solutions.

The disease's spread has been slower than expected, said Ken Keck, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus.

"Greening is not necessarily tearing through the industry," Keck said.

The orange crop in California, which produces most of the fruit sold fresh, is expected to be 55 million boxes, each weighing 90 pounds, up 13 percent from last season. In Texas, orange production is expected to be down 1 percent from last season at 1.45 million 90-pound boxes.